By Amb. S. Yasir Abiola
For Mature Minds Digital Radio TV
The outcome of the 2026 Osun State Governorship Election has demonstrated that political parties can no longer take voter loyalty for granted, with the results suggesting a growing emphasis on candidate credibility, voter choice and political accountability.
Amb. S. Yasir Abiola made the observation while analysing the outcome of the election on Clarion Call, a programme of Mature Minds Digital Radio TV, where he examined what the Osun results could mean for political parties ahead of future elections.
According to the figures presented during the programme, the political control of Osun has shifted between major political parties over successive governorship elections, with the PDP winning in 2007, APC in 2014 and 2018, PDP in 2022, and Accord in 2026.
Abiola said the pattern showed that no political party should assume permanent ownership of the electorate.
“Voters are not the property of political parties. They are citizens. They have choices, and at every election, they have the constitutional power to change their minds,” he said.
2018: A 482-VOTE DIFFERENCE
Reflecting on the 2018 governorship election, Abiola noted that the contest between APC’s Gboyega Oyetola and PDP’s Ademola Adeleke was decided by a very narrow margin.
The figures presented showed Oyetola polling 255,505 votes, against Adeleke’s 255,023 votes, leaving a difference of only 482 votes.
According to Abiola, the result demonstrated how individual voter decisions at polling units could determine the political direction of an entire state.
He questioned whether political parties pay sufficient attention to individual voters between elections or only remember them when their votes are needed.
2022: A CHANGE IN VOTER PREFERENCE
The political equation changed in 2022 when Adeleke, contesting on the PDP platform, defeated Oyetola of the APC.
The figures presented showed Adeleke recording 403,371 votes, while Oyetola polled 375,027 votes, giving Adeleke a margin of 28,344 votes.
Abiola described the development as evidence that voters can reconsider their political choices and move from one political preference to another.
He said political parties should therefore understand that yesterday’s electoral support does not automatically translate into tomorrow’s victory.
2026: THE CANDIDATE VERSUS THE PARTY
The 2026 election, according to Abiola, raises an even bigger question about the growing importance of individual candidates in Nigerian elections.
The figures presented showed Ademola Adeleke, contesting under Accord, polling 511,067 votes, while Bola Oyebamiji of the APC recorded 444,815 votes, representing a reported margin of 66,252 votes.
Adeleke was also reported to have won 19 of the state’s 30 Local Government Areas, while the APC won 11.
Abiola drew particular attention to Adeleke’s movement from the PDP platform in 2022 to Accord in 2026.
He noted that Adeleke’s reported vote total increased by 107,696 votes, from 403,371 in 2022 to 511,067 in 2026.
This, he said, raises a fundamental political question:
“Did Adeleke win because of Accord, or did Accord win because of Adeleke?”
According to Abiola, the question is important because it challenges political parties to consider whether voters are increasingly evaluating candidates based on credibility and performance rather than party identity alone.
MESSAGE FOR APC AND OTHER POLITICAL PARTIES
Abiola stressed that his analysis should not be interpreted as an attack on the APC, but as a civic assessment of the election.
He noted that APC won Osun in 2014 and retained the state narrowly in 2018 before losing to PDP in 2022 and, according to the figures presented, losing again in 2026.
He urged political parties to conduct honest post-election assessments, particularly around candidate selection, internal cohesion, campaign strategy, public perception, grassroots engagement and voter connection.
“A serious political party should be willing to ask difficult questions after an election,” he said.
ADC RESULT: VISIBILITY IS NOT VICTORY
Abiola also pointed to the reported performance of the ADC candidate, Najeem Salaam, who, according to the figures presented, secured 17,180 votes and did not win any Local Government Area.
He said the result illustrates the difference between political visibility and electoral strength.
According to him, political parties may attract attention on social media or generate political excitement, but electoral success ultimately depends on the ability to connect with voters at the grassroots.
“Political parties must convert attention into organisation, organisation into voter connection, and voter connection into votes,” he said.
POLITICS IS STILL LOCAL
Abiola further argued that national political branding cannot replace effective grassroots engagement.
He said voters ultimately experience government at the level of their communities, wards, polling units and Local Government Areas.
Issues such as the cost of living, employment, security, education, infrastructure and access to government, he noted, can significantly influence how citizens evaluate political candidates.
A MESSAGE TO VOTERS
While urging political parties to listen to the electorate, Abiola also called on voters to take responsibility for the quality of leadership they elect.
He encouraged citizens to demand credible candidates and resist practices that undermine genuine electoral choice, including vote buying and identity-based political manipulation.
He said voters possess a powerful democratic instrument in the ballot and should exercise it responsibly.
THE BIGGER LESSON FROM OSUN
According to Abiola, the lesson from Osun extends beyond the state.
He said political parties across Nigeria should begin to ask not merely which party controls a particular state, but which party and candidate have genuinely earned the confidence of the electorate.
“Political parties do not own voters. They earn voters. And candidates do not inherit the people’s loyalty; they must earn their trust,” Abiola said.
He added that electoral victory should not be viewed as the end of accountability, but as the beginning of a responsibility to the people who entrusted leaders with political power.
The analysis was presented on Clarion Call, a programme of Mature Minds Digital Radio TV, under the theme:
“OSUN DECIDES: WHAT THE ELECTION RESULTS ARE TELLING NIGERIAN POLITICAL PARTIES — From Party Loyalty to Candidate Credibility, Voter Choice and Political Accountability.”
Amb. S. Yasir Abiola
Mature Minds Digital Radio TV
